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House Aggregate Simulations

170180190200210220230MAJORITY (218)GOP Majority Probability4.1%Movement(Since Last Model)+0.34% D

Individual House Seats

The chart below displays the probability chance of Republicans winning individual races. The higher the probability, the higher the chance of a Republican win in the race.
GOP Majority Probability
0%10%25%40%60%75%90%100%CA 25KY 06GA 06VA 02TX 07NC 09ME 02KS 02IA 03WA 08VA 07FL 26CA 45MI 08OH 12UT 04CA 48MN 01PA 01CA 39NJ 03NM 02WI 01AZ 01NY 19IL 14IL 06NY 22VA 05PA 10NC 13FL 06NV 04WA 03TX 32IL 13CA 10MN 08FL 15CA 21MI 06NY 11FL 27IL 12PA 16WV 03CA 04MN 02AK*MO 02MI 11MI 07OH 01NJ 07AZ 08MD 06NY 27WA 05CA 50NC 07NC 02VA 10KS 03IA 01NV 03FL 07MT*MN 03PA 17FL 18CO 06NY 24CA 24WI 06IN 02IA 04NJ 11FL 25NH 01GA 07NY 23NE 02PA 04NY 01TX 23SC 01IN 09PA 07AZ 09CA 49TX 21OH 07SC 05PA 14NJ 04NY 02TX 10TX 06CA 01TX 22CO 03FL 16WV 02AZ 02PA 03TX 31MD 01MI 02CA 22AR 02TX 02PA 11OH 10OH 14VA 09TN 04PA 08CO 04IN 05PA 05PA 13KY 03ID 01NJ 05OR 02OR 04CA 07MA 09OK 05FL 09FL 12NY 25OH 15NM 01MI 09NY 21OH 16MI 01KS 01OK 01HI 01MA 03MN 07CA 16CO 02FL 19FL 05NJ 02IA 02PA 09UT 02CA 43KS 04NY 18MI 03CA 31VA 04TX 25NY 03OH 02NH 02IN 03PA 06MN 04AZ 03AZ 06CA 12TX 36GA 02IN 04NC 12CA 03VA 06CA 36MO 05TX 27CO 05CT 05NC 08WI 05SD*GA 12VA 01IL 01OH 13CA 53ME 01TX 29NC 06TX 18GA 04CA 09NM 03FL 23TX 14TN 02IL 16NJ 12MI 05CT 04FL 13NV 02AL 02CA 18CA 35CA 32WA 04TX 03AL 05MO 01TN 07LA 03AZ 05FL 08NY 15TX 15TX 05FL 17NJ 10SC 04NJ 08NV 01IN 06CA 52PA 12AZ 04NC 05RI 02MN 05TN 01CO 07TN 06MI 12OH 04AL 03CA 51FL 03LA 01TX 16VA 11NY 04ND*IN 08CA 11TX 34FL 22DE*WI 03OR 01TX 24CT 02TN 05MI 10IN 07PA 15TX 17CA 23GA 11IL 17NC 11TN 03SC 03TX 33CA 26MO 04CA 42FL 02TN 09CA 41HI 02CA 47IL 10WI 08IL 04KY 04CA 17OK 02MI 04NY 13FL 11MN 06MS 01NY 12LA 04GA 09TX 01IL 08NC 04NC 10MS 04SC 07WY*MD 08IL 07MA 06MS 03CA 46WV 01SC 02TX 26NY 14IN 01OH 06WI 07WA 06MO 07WA 01NY 09WI 04ID 02NE 01NY 20TX 08TN 08MD 03OH 05AL 06NJ 01IL 02GA 13GA 10KY 01AR 04CA 29OH 03GA 01TX 04OR 05NC 01FL 04MD 04OH 09WA 07LA 05OH 08IL 11WA 10TX 35AL 01CT 03MD 05FL 01AR 01IL 05OH 11IL 03CA 33IL 09NJ 06GA 03KY 05TX 19CA 28UT 01UT 03AR 03CA 19MO 08MS 02MI 14CA 02LA 06CO 01MO 06MD 02NY 10TX 12MA 02IL 18MA 05CT 01TX 13CA 37OK 03NY 26KY 02PA 02VA 08NE 03MO 03SC 06AL 04CA 15OK 04IL 15RI 01CA 38GA 14NY 17TX 11MD 07VT*NJ 09CA 30CA 14NY 08NY 06CA 20MA 01LA 02NC 03PA 18GA 05MI 13NY 05CA 13MA 08CA 08FL 24TX 20NY 16MA 07CA 44CA 40WA 02FL 21AZ 07GA 08FL 20FL 14AL 07WA 09CA 34TX 28OR 03CA 06CA 05WI 02TX 30TX 09FL 10MA 04CA 27VA 03NY 07
* indicates an at-large district

11/06

MODEL NOTES

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House Seats By State

The map below shows the congressional districts for the selected region color coded by GOP win probability (from blue to red, with purple being toss up districts).